CFP National Championship Game: Michigan vs. Washington Best Bets from VSiN Hosts and Writers

[carlitosway]

College football National Championship Game Michigan vs. Washington best bets​

The college football season comes to an end on Monday with the College Football Playoff National Championship Game between Michigan and Washington. Our VSiN hosts, writers, and personalities certainly have takes on the game and here are the best bets that our people have to offer.
This file will be updated as more picks roll in, so keep checking back up until kickoff.

Washington Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines (-4.5, 56)​

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 1/6, 9 a.m. PT

Gill Alexander​

Washington +4.5
Washington +166
I'm not sure why the market continues to disrespect UDub time and time again, but I'm here for it. There's no way for any defense, no matter how good it is, to cover the Huskies' arsenal of NFL caliber receivers against a great offensive line and the most accurate deep passer in college football in Michael Penix. On the other side of the ball, Washington's pass defense gets a bad rap by mainstream broadcasters because they give up a lot of yards. What gets left out of that explanation is that their opponents are always in catch-up mode, belying the fact that advanced stats let you know they're actually above average in pass coverage. Their weakness is actually in their run defense, and if Michigan is aware of that, I'm happy to have bets fading Michigan's ground attack trying to keep up w Penix & Co. scoring.

Stormy Buonantony​

Washington +4.5
This season Washington was an underdog both meetings with Oregon and the semifinal against Texas. What happened in those games? They won straight up. In fact in 2 years under Kalen DeBoer the Huskies have won every single game they've been an underdog in outright (5-0). I've heard a number of people say the close games will catch up with them and MIchigan's defense will be too much for the Huskies, but I say the close games make them battle-tested and Michigan hasn't seen an explosive offense quite like what Michael Penix Jr. & Co. will bring. Give me the Huskies plus the points and a little on the moneyline.

Matt Brown​

JJ McCarthy No INT (-125)
It's not a sexy prop to play, that's for sure. But, betting JJ McCarthy NO INT was one of the first props I threw into my account when lines were posted. McCarthy only has four INTs on the season as it is, but if you dig a little deeper, you see all four of those came in just two games. So the Michigan QB was clean in 12 of his 14 games played so far this season. He just doesn't put the ball in harm's way very often. Further, Michigan plays slow, so it reduces the number of plays in the game for an INT to even happen. And we know they will try and try hard to run the ball, control the clock, and keep Penix and company over on the sideline. McCarthy's eight pass attempts and 20 pass attempt games against Penn State and Ohio State, respectively, are fresh on my mind. If Michigan can find any success on the ground, they will have no problem winning ugly. It's easily within the range of outcomes that McCarthy has 25 or fewer attempts, as he did in nine games this season.

Femi Abebefe​

Washington +4.5

What makes this game so fun to handicap is the two contrasting styles. How will Washington handle Michigan’s ground-and-pound approach? Can the Wolverines defense handle the dynamic Husky passing attack?

All of these questions will be answered in what I think will be a close game throughout. If there’s one thing we’ve learned about Washington this season—it’s that the market can’t quite seem to rate them properly. That’s not to say that they’re overrated or underrated. Instead, this is a team that is just destined to play close games.
In 2022, the Huskies went 4-2 in games decided by eight points or less, and are 8-0 in those games this year, which is not the typical profile of an undefeated Power Five team. In comparison, Michigan only played in three games with that close of a margin. Usually in the betting world, we associate close games with being lucky or not as good as your record suggests, but for whatever reason, Washington has turned it into a skill since head coach Kalen DeBoer took over at the start of last year.
With a rising star at head coach, and maybe the most explosive passing game in the country led by quarterback Michael Penix Jr., Washington has the goods to keep this game within a possession.

With all of that said, in my heart of hearts, I still believe the game is won and lost in the trenches. So while I believe the Huskies will cover the 4.5, ultimately it’ll be Michigan who’s celebrating a narrow win Monday night in Houston.

Patrick Meagher​

Huskies ML (+160)
It's not often bettors get a chance to bet into a ML price like this with the better team, but here we are. No need to overthink this. Michigan is overrated. Yes, they have a very good defense, but J.J. McCarthy and the skill around him continue to be wildly overrated. Conversely, Washington's QB and the skill around him is elite. Throw in a coaching edge for Washington. Huskies ML.

Amal Shah​

Washington +4.5
The Huskies’ electric offense is the difference in this game for the National Championship. Michigan hasn’t faced as potent an offense all year as Washington. Heisman runner-up Michael Penix Jr. is healthy again and he and Rome Odunze should have a great night in the dome in Houston. Washington wins 31-24.

Mike Somich​

Blake Corum Over 103.5 Rush Yards
Michigan should control the offensive line of scrimmage when they have the football and we have seen Harbaugh run, run and run some more when they have the advantage. As the favorite, the game script should also favor Michigan keeping the ball on the ground. When they have had the advantage, Michigan has thrown the football as few as nine times in big games. I project 20+ carries for Corum in this spot and that should allow him to fly over the 103.5 rush yards.
SGP: Penix Over 290.5 Passing Yards / Over 1.5 TD Passes +135
Washington will be one-dimensional when moving the football and projects to have success through the air versus this Michigan secondary. With the loss of their starting running back late against Texas, the Huskies will be forced to throw more, even around the goal line. I've got Penix projected for 2.2 TD passes and 315 yards passing so I will play these together as a correlated parlay to get into the plus money range.

Ben Wilson​

1H Over 27.5 (DraftKings/Caesars)
With a quick turnaround from the CFP Semis and having to prepare for drastically different offenses than their previous opponent, each defense will have issues out of the gates limiting explosive plays. The biggest edge for either team is the Michigan running game and stud RB Blake Corum against a Washington unit that finished the regular season 99th in Rush Defense EPA/Play. That deficiency was exposed in the Sugar Bowl as Texas ran wild for 6.4 YPC and 3 TDs. The good news for Washington is that QB Michael Penix is basically superman and looks much healthier after struggling late in the season with a rumored rib injury. His top WRs Rome Odunze and Ja'Lynn Polk are a far better duo than anyone in the Big Ten and Michigan will struggle early in the secondary containing those weapons.

Michael Lombardi​

Washington +4.5

Pauly Howard​

Largest Lead of the Game Under 17.5 (-130)

Dave Ross​

Washington +4.5
I’m playing the Huskies (once again).
They’ve been a solid dog play. Of course, most notably, in the Pac-12 title game where I had them +9 and a nice ML hit as well.
Same last week vs Texas had them plus the points and on the ML.
I’m not bucking the trend now. Love Michigan’s defense, but it’ll be their best test all year and I don’t think they can match up with the Huskies fleet of receivers.
So let’s run it back: Huskies plus the points and a sprinkle on the ML

 

[indiana]

C/way....BOL with your play tonight buddy....
appreciate all your info this past season.....indy